Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Impact Records: Mediterranean and Connected Seas

Abstract Tsunami risk is considered as the probability of a particular coastline being struck by tsunami that may cause certain level impact (destructiveness). The metric expressed in terms intensity values, K, assigned on 12-degree scale. To calculate we are based history region codified catalogues. probabilistic model adopted was used successfully for hazard assessment earthquakes (Kijko et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 2016) and tsunamis (Smit Environmetrics 30:e2566, 2019) considering seismic magnitude height metrics respective hazards. In this model, instead inserted metric, i.e. wave values. procedure allows utilization entire data set consisting not only from complete (recent) part catalogue but also highly incomplete uncertain historical catalogue. Risk assessed probabilities exceedance return periods values specific time frames. We applied using catalogues Mediterranean connected seas. Sensitivity analysis showed sets generally provided more realistic results than sets. Results indicated depends seismicity size individual ocean basin. highest found eastern (EM), with significantly lower western (WM). Marmara Sea (MS), low, lowest Black (BS). small Corinth Gulf (CG, Central Greece) comparable to WM. period damaging (i.e. K ≥ 7) 22 years basin 31, 118, 135, 424, 1660 EM, WM, CG, MS, BS basins, respectively.